Al Ramms 2–4 Dubai United: Result & Stats

Al Ramms

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Dubai United

9/24/2023

Division 1 · Round 3Al Jazirah Al Hamra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Al Ramms26%

×Draw21%

Dubai United53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al RammsExpected goals in this matchDubai United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

2.06

Al Ramms

1.39

Dubai United

2.06

Dubai United creates 48% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 43 away

1.24

creates per match

1.95

2.17

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Al Ramms

1.24

Dubai United

1.95

allows per match

Al Ramms

2.17

Dubai United

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ramms+0.00on par

Dubai United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ramms ↓

Dubai United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Al Ramms or draw

47%

Al Ramms or Dubai United

79%

Draw or Dubai United

74%

Winning margin

Al Ramms wins by 2+

11%

Dubai United wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Al Ramms 1+ goals

75%

Al Ramms 2+ goals

40%

Al Ramms 3+ goals

16%

Dubai United 1+ goals

87%

Dubai United 2+ goals

61%

Dubai United 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Al Ramms (draw refunded)

33%

Dubai United (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ramms at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.17 · 42 matches

Dubai United away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ramms attack 1.24 + Dubai United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dubai United attack 1.95 + Al Ramms defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Ramms scores more

26%

level

21%

Dubai United scores more

53%

Dubai United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dubai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff