Dubai City 2–1 Al Ramms: Result & Stats

Dubai City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al Ramms

4/14/2023

Division 1 · Round 30Al-Bataeh Club Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Dubai City41%

×Draw24%

Al Ramms35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dubai CityExpected goals in this matchAl Ramms

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.46

Dubai City

1.58

Al Ramms

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 43 away

0.98

creates per match

0.95

1.98

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Dubai City

0.98

Al Ramms

0.95

allows per match

Dubai City

1.98

Al Ramms

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dubai City+0.00on par

Al Ramms+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubai City ↓

Al Ramms →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dubai City or draw

65%

Dubai City or Al Ramms

76%

Draw or Al Ramms

59%

Winning margin

Dubai City wins by 2+

20%

Al Ramms wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dubai City 1+ goals

79%

Dubai City 2+ goals

47%

Dubai City 3+ goals

21%

Al Ramms 1+ goals

77%

Al Ramms 2+ goals

43%

Al Ramms 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Dubai City (draw refunded)

53%

Al Ramms (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubai City at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.98 · 60 matches

Al Ramms away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubai City attack 0.98 + Al Ramms defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.58

Al Ramms attack 0.95 + Dubai City defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dubai City scores more

41%

level

24%

Al Ramms scores more

35%

Dubai City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dubai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff