Al Ramms 0–2 Dubai City: Result & Stats

Al Ramms

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dubai City

2/4/2024

Division 1 · Round 19Al Rams Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Al Ramms42%

×Draw23%

Dubai City35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al RammsExpected goals in this matchDubai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.57

Al Ramms

1.76

Dubai City

1.57

Al Ramms creates 12% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 60 away

1.24

creates per match

0.98

2.17

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Al Ramms

1.24

Dubai City

0.98

allows per match

Al Ramms

2.17

Dubai City

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ramms+0.00on par

Dubai City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ramms ↓

Dubai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Al Ramms or draw

65%

Al Ramms or Dubai City

77%

Draw or Dubai City

58%

Winning margin

Al Ramms wins by 2+

22%

Dubai City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Al Ramms 1+ goals

83%

Al Ramms 2+ goals

52%

Al Ramms 3+ goals

26%

Dubai City 1+ goals

79%

Dubai City 2+ goals

46%

Dubai City 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Al Ramms (draw refunded)

55%

Dubai City (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ramms at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.17 · 42 matches

Dubai City away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.28 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ramms attack 1.24 + Dubai City defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.76

Dubai City attack 0.98 + Al Ramms defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Ramms scores more

42%

level

23%

Dubai City scores more

35%

Al Ramms at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Ramms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff