Druk Lhayul 2–2 Bhutan U19: Result & Stats

Druk Lhayul

FT

2 – 2

Bhutan U19

7/23/2023

Premier League · Round 1Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Druk Lhayul54%

×Draw18%

Bhutan U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Druk LhayulExpected goals in this matchBhutan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

2.19

Druk Lhayul

3.00

Bhutan U19

2.19

Druk Lhayul creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

3.44

creates per match

1.26

3.11

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Druk Lhayul

3.44

Bhutan U19

1.26

allows per match

Druk Lhayul

3.11

Bhutan U19

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Druk Lhayul+0.00on par

Bhutan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Druk Lhayul ↓

Bhutan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Druk Lhayul or draw

72%

Druk Lhayul or Bhutan U19

82%

Draw or Bhutan U19

46%

Winning margin

Druk Lhayul wins by 2+

35%

Bhutan U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Druk Lhayul 1+ goals

95%

Druk Lhayul 2+ goals

79%

Druk Lhayul 3+ goals

56%

Bhutan U19 1+ goals

89%

Bhutan U19 2+ goals

64%

Bhutan U19 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Druk Lhayul (draw refunded)

66%

Bhutan U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Druk Lhayul at home — creates 3.44, concedes 3.11 · 9 matches

Bhutan U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.57 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Druk Lhayul attack 3.44 + Bhutan U19 defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 3.00

Bhutan U19 attack 1.26 + Druk Lhayul defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Druk Lhayul scores more

54%

level

18%

Bhutan U19 scores more

28%

Druk Lhayul at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Druk Lhayul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff