Bhutan U19 1–2 Druk Lhayul: Result & Stats

Bhutan U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Druk Lhayul

10/23/2023

Premier League · Round 5Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bhutan U1948%

×Draw20%

Druk Lhayul32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bhutan U19Expected goals in this matchDruk Lhayul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.80

Bhutan U19

2.22

Druk Lhayul

1.80

Bhutan U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 9 away

1.55

creates per match

1.78

1.82

allows per match

2.89

creates per match

Bhutan U19

1.55

Druk Lhayul

1.78

allows per match

Bhutan U19

1.82

Druk Lhayul

2.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bhutan U19+0.00on par

Druk Lhayul+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bhutan U19 ↓

Druk Lhayul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Bhutan U19 or draw

68%

Bhutan U19 or Druk Lhayul

80%

Draw or Druk Lhayul

52%

Winning margin

Bhutan U19 wins by 2+

28%

Druk Lhayul wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bhutan U19 1+ goals

89%

Bhutan U19 2+ goals

65%

Bhutan U19 3+ goals

38%

Druk Lhayul 1+ goals

83%

Druk Lhayul 2+ goals

54%

Druk Lhayul 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Bhutan U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Druk Lhayul (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bhutan U19 at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

Druk Lhayul away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bhutan U19 attack 1.55 + Druk Lhayul defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.22

Druk Lhayul attack 1.78 + Bhutan U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bhutan U19 scores more

48%

level

20%

Druk Lhayul scores more

32%

Bhutan U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bhutan U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff