Drogheda United 3–1 Cork City: Result & Stats

Drogheda United

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cork City

R. Brennan 90+5' (pen)

A. McNally 85'

K. Robinson 61'

K. Čustović 15'

8/25/2023

Premier Division · Round 28Weavers Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Drogheda United54%

×Draw25%

Cork City21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Drogheda UnitedExpected goals in this matchCork City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.92

Drogheda United

1.65

Cork City

0.92

Drogheda United creates 79% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 60 away

1.24

creates per match

0.73

1.11

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Drogheda United

1.24

Cork City

0.73

allows per match

Drogheda United

1.11

Cork City

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Drogheda United+0.00on par

Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drogheda United ↓

Cork City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Drogheda United or draw

79%

Drogheda United or Cork City

75%

Draw or Cork City

46%

Winning margin

Drogheda United wins by 2+

29%

Cork City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Drogheda United 1+ goals

81%

Drogheda United 2+ goals

49%

Drogheda United 3+ goals

23%

Cork City 1+ goals

60%

Cork City 2+ goals

23%

Cork City 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Drogheda United (draw refunded)

72%

Cork City (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drogheda United at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 102 matches

Cork City away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.07 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drogheda United attack 1.24 + Cork City defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.65

Cork City attack 0.73 + Drogheda United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Drogheda United scores more

54%

level

25%

Cork City scores more

21%

Drogheda United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Drogheda United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

R. Brennan

Drogheda United · M

8.3

Match Events

15'

K. Čustović↳ B. Worman

40'

51'

51'

51'

53'

G. Walker← R. Stanulevičius

57'

Conor Kane

61'

J. Kabia← B. Worman

61'

K. Robinson↳ C. Keeley

73'

A. McNally← D. Rooney

75'

Joshua Honohan

77'

Warren Davis

85'

A. McNally↳ R. Brennan

90'

Kyle Robinson

90+3'

Cian Coleman

90+5'

R. BrennanPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DroghedaCork

Overview

61%Possession39%

15Total Shots13

9Corners3

7Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots13

5On Target5

4Off Target4

6Blocked4

9Inside Box6

6Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

410Total Passes271

303Accurate Passes152

74%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls14

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1