Cork City 1–1 Drogheda United: Result & Stats

Cork City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Drogheda United

D. Daniels 90'

S. Farrell 12'

6/23/2025

Premier Division · Round 21Turners Cross

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Cork City43%

×Draw27%

Drogheda United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cork CityExpected goals in this matchDrogheda United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.09

Cork City

1.36

Drogheda United

1.09

Cork City creates 25% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 103 away

0.97

creates per match

1.01

1.18

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Cork City

0.97

Drogheda United

1.01

allows per match

Cork City

1.18

Drogheda United

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cork City+0.00on par

Drogheda United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City ↓

Drogheda United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cork City or draw

70%

Cork City or Drogheda United

73%

Draw or Drogheda United

57%

Winning margin

Cork City wins by 2+

20%

Drogheda United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cork City 1+ goals

74%

Cork City 2+ goals

39%

Cork City 3+ goals

16%

Drogheda United 1+ goals

66%

Drogheda United 2+ goals

30%

Drogheda United 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cork City (draw refunded)

59%

Drogheda United (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cork City at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

Drogheda United away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.75 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cork City attack 0.97 + Drogheda United defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.36

Drogheda United attack 1.01 + Cork City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cork City scores more

43%

level

27%

Drogheda United scores more

30%

Cork City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cork City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

D. Daniels

Cork City · F

7.9

Match Events

8'

A. Harper-Bailey← G. Cooper

12'

15'

33'

45'

46'

C. O'Sullivan← D. Crowley

64'

R. Shipston← S. Murray

67'

D. Markey← R. Brennan

68'

J. Fitzpatrick← M. Kiernan

68'

E. McLaughlin← G. Bolger

72'

Luke Dennison

77'

M. Dijksteel← K. Nelson

79'

T. Oluwa← W. Davis

90'

D. Daniels↳ J. Fitzpatrick

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CorkDrogheda

Overview

76%Possession24%

22Total Shots3

9Corners2

10Fouls12

Shots

22Total Shots3

6On Target2

10Off Target1

6Blocked0

13Inside Box0

9Outside Box3

Passing

76%Possession24%

585Total Passes185

479Accurate Passes92

82%Pass Accuracy50%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2