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Drogheda United vs Bray Wanderers — First Division 2019

Drogheda United
Drogheda United
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Bray Wanderers
Bray Wanderers
8/7/2020First DivisionFirst Division · Round 5United Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Drogheda United51%
×Draw23%
Bray Wanderers25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drogheda United
1.78
Bray Wanderers
1.18

Drogheda United creates 51% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 119 away

creates per match

Drogheda United
2.15
Bray Wanderers
1.25

allows per match

Drogheda United
1.10
Bray Wanderers
1.41

finishing

Drogheda United+0.00on par
Bray Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drogheda United ↓

Bray Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Drogheda United or draw
75%
Drogheda United or Bray Wanderers
77%
Draw or Bray Wanderers
49%

Winning margin

Drogheda United wins by 2+
28%
Bray Wanderers wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Drogheda United 1+ goals
83%
Drogheda United 2+ goals
53%
Drogheda United 3+ goals
26%
Bray Wanderers 1+ goals
69%
Bray Wanderers 2+ goals
33%
Bray Wanderers 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Drogheda United (draw refunded)
67%
Bray Wanderers (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drogheda United at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

Bray Wanderers away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.41 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drogheda United attack 2.15 + Bray Wanderers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.78

Bray Wanderers attack 1.25 + Drogheda United defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Drogheda United scores more
51%
level
23%
Bray Wanderers scores more
25%

Drogheda United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Drogheda United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Drogheda United vs Bray Wanderers

Drogheda United beat Bray Wanderers 3-1 in First Division on August 7, 2020.

The match was played at United Park in Drogheda.