Bray Wanderers 3–1 Drogheda United: Result & Stats

Bray Wanderers

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Drogheda United

4/19/2019

First Division · Round 9Carlisle Grounds (Bray)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Bray Wanderers32%

×Draw23%

Drogheda United45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bray WanderersExpected goals in this matchDrogheda United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.74

Bray Wanderers

1.44

Drogheda United

1.74

Drogheda United creates 21% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 22 away

1.69

creates per match

2.18

1.30

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Bray Wanderers

1.69

Drogheda United

2.18

allows per match

Bray Wanderers

1.30

Drogheda United

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bray Wanderers+0.00on par

Drogheda United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bray Wanderers ↓

Drogheda United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Bray Wanderers or draw

55%

Bray Wanderers or Drogheda United

77%

Draw or Drogheda United

68%

Winning margin

Bray Wanderers wins by 2+

15%

Drogheda United wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Bray Wanderers 1+ goals

76%

Bray Wanderers 2+ goals

42%

Bray Wanderers 3+ goals

18%

Drogheda United 1+ goals

82%

Drogheda United 2+ goals

52%

Drogheda United 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Bray Wanderers (draw refunded)

42%

Drogheda United (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bray Wanderers at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.30 · 121 matches

Drogheda United away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bray Wanderers attack 1.69 + Drogheda United defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.44

Drogheda United attack 2.18 + Bray Wanderers defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bray Wanderers scores more

32%

level

23%

Drogheda United scores more

45%

Drogheda United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Drogheda United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff