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Drita vs Prishtina e Re — Superliga 2019

Drita
Drita
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Prishtina e Re
Prishtina e Re
A. Manaj 62'
V. Tusha 28'
P. Friday 82'
9/21/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 5Stadiumi me bar sintetik Gjilan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Drita63%
×Draw22%
Prishtina e Re15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drita
1.90
Prishtina e Re
0.81

Drita creates 135% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 19 away

creates per match

Drita
1.85
Prishtina e Re
1.00

allows per match

Drita
0.63
Prishtina e Re
1.95

finishing

Drita+0.00on par
Prishtina e Re+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drita ↓

Prishtina e Re →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Drita or draw
85%
Drita or Prishtina e Re
78%
Draw or Prishtina e Re
37%

Winning margin

Drita wins by 2+
38%
Prishtina e Re wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Drita 1+ goals
85%
Drita 2+ goals
56%
Drita 3+ goals
29%
Prishtina e Re 1+ goals
56%
Prishtina e Re 2+ goals
19%
Prishtina e Re 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Drita (draw refunded)
80%
Prishtina e Re (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drita at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.63 · 125 matches

Prishtina e Re away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drita attack 1.85 + Prishtina e Re defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.90

Prishtina e Re attack 1.00 + Drita defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Drita scores more
63%
level
22%
Prishtina e Re scores more
15%

Drita at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Drita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
V. Tusha
62'
A. Manaj
82'
P. Friday

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Drita 2–1 Prishtina e Re

Drita beat Prishtina e Re 2-1 in Superliga on September 21, 2025.

Goals: V. Tusha (28'), A. Manaj (62'), P. Friday (82').

The match was played at Stadiumi me bar sintetik Gjilan in Gjilan (Gnjilane).