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Drita vs Arbëria — Superliga 2019

Drita
Drita
FT
1 – 1
Arbëria
Arbëria
12/14/2020SuperligaSuperliga · Round 18Stadiumi i qytetit Gjilan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Drita52%
×Draw25%
Arbëria23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drita
1.56
Arbëria
0.93

Drita creates 68% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 18 away

creates per match

Drita
1.85
Arbëria
1.22

allows per match

Drita
0.63
Arbëria
1.28

finishing

Drita+0.00on par
Arbëria+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drita ↓

Arbëria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Drita or draw
77%
Drita or Arbëria
75%
Draw or Arbëria
48%

Winning margin

Drita wins by 2+
27%
Arbëria wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Drita 1+ goals
79%
Drita 2+ goals
46%
Drita 3+ goals
21%
Arbëria 1+ goals
61%
Arbëria 2+ goals
24%
Arbëria 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Drita (draw refunded)
70%
Arbëria (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drita at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.63 · 125 matches

Arbëria away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drita attack 1.85 + Arbëria defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.56

Arbëria attack 1.22 + Drita defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Drita scores more
52%
level
25%
Arbëria scores more
23%

Drita at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Drita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Drita vs Arbëria

Drita and Arbëria drew 1-1 in Superliga on December 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit Gjilan in Gnjilane.