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Arbëria vs Drita — Superliga 2019

Arbëria
Arbëria
FT
0 – 1
Drita
Drita
10/27/2020SuperligaSuperliga · Round 9Stadiumi Agron Rama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Arbëria24%
×Draw25%
Drita52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arbëria
1.02
Drita
1.63

Drita creates 60% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 124 away

creates per match

Arbëria
1.11
Drita
1.31

allows per match

Arbëria
1.94
Drita
0.94

finishing

Arbëria+0.00on par
Drita+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arbëria ↓

Drita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Arbëria or draw
48%
Arbëria or Drita
75%
Draw or Drita
76%

Winning margin

Arbëria wins by 2+
9%
Drita wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Arbëria 1+ goals
64%
Arbëria 2+ goals
27%
Arbëria 3+ goals
8%
Drita 1+ goals
80%
Drita 2+ goals
48%
Drita 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Arbëria (draw refunded)
32%
Drita (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arbëria at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

Drita away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.94 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arbëria attack 1.11 + Drita defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Drita attack 1.31 + Arbëria defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Arbëria scores more
24%
level
25%
Drita scores more
52%

Drita at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Drita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Arbëria 0–1 Drita

Drita beat Arbëria 1-0 in Superliga on October 27, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Agron Rama in Kastriot.