Drina Zvornik 2–0 Famos Vojkovići: Result & Stats

Drina Zvornik

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Famos Vojkovići

3/2/2024

1st League - RS · RS - 18Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Drina Zvornik66%

×Draw21%

Famos Vojkovići13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Drina ZvornikExpected goals in this matchFamos Vojkovići

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.73

Drina Zvornik

1.94

Famos Vojkovići

0.73

Drina Zvornik creates 166% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 66 away

1.93

creates per match

0.73

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Drina Zvornik

1.93

Famos Vojkovići

0.73

allows per match

Drina Zvornik

0.73

Famos Vojkovići

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Drina Zvornik+0.00on par

Famos Vojkovići+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drina Zvornik ↓

Famos Vojkovići →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Drina Zvornik or draw

87%

Drina Zvornik or Famos Vojkovići

79%

Draw or Famos Vojkovići

34%

Winning margin

Drina Zvornik wins by 2+

40%

Famos Vojkovići wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Drina Zvornik 1+ goals

86%

Drina Zvornik 2+ goals

58%

Drina Zvornik 3+ goals

30%

Famos Vojkovići 1+ goals

52%

Famos Vojkovići 2+ goals

17%

Famos Vojkovići 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)

83%

Famos Vojkovići (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drina Zvornik at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.73 · 95 matches

Famos Vojkovići away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.94 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drina Zvornik attack 1.93 + Famos Vojkovići defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.94

Famos Vojkovići attack 0.73 + Drina Zvornik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Drina Zvornik scores more

66%

level

21%

Famos Vojkovići scores more

13%

Drina Zvornik at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Drina Zvornik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff