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Drina Zvornik vs Budućnost Pilica — 1st League - RS 2019

Drina Zvornik
Drina Zvornik
FT
7 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Budućnost Pilica
Budućnost Pilica
5/28/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 30Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Drina Zvornik83%
×Draw12%
Budućnost Pilica5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drina Zvornik
2.80
Budućnost Pilica
0.56

Drina Zvornik creates 400% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 15 away

creates per match

Drina Zvornik
1.93
Budućnost Pilica
0.40

allows per match

Drina Zvornik
0.73
Budućnost Pilica
3.67

finishing

Drina Zvornik+0.00on par
Budućnost Pilica+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drina Zvornik ↓

Budućnost Pilica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Drina Zvornik or draw
95%
Drina Zvornik or Budućnost Pilica
88%
Draw or Budućnost Pilica
17%

Winning margin

Drina Zvornik wins by 2+
63%
Budućnost Pilica wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Drina Zvornik 1+ goals
94%
Drina Zvornik 2+ goals
76%
Drina Zvornik 3+ goals
52%
Budućnost Pilica 1+ goals
43%
Budućnost Pilica 2+ goals
11%
Budućnost Pilica 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)
94%
Budućnost Pilica (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drina Zvornik at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.73 · 95 matches

Budućnost Pilica away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drina Zvornik attack 1.93 + Budućnost Pilica defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.80

Budućnost Pilica attack 0.40 + Drina Zvornik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Drina Zvornik scores more
83%
level
12%
Budućnost Pilica scores more
5%

Drina Zvornik at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Drina Zvornik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Drina Zvornik 7–2 Budućnost Pilica

Drina Zvornik beat Budućnost Pilica 7-2 in 1st League - RS on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Zvornik.