Budućnost Pilica 0–0 Drina Zvornik: Result & Stats

Budućnost Pilica

FT

0 – 0

Drina Zvornik

11/20/2021

1st League - RS · RS - 15Stadion FK Budućnost Pilica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Budućnost Pilica32%

×Draw24%

Drina Zvornik43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Budućnost PilicaExpected goals in this matchDrina Zvornik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.59

Budućnost Pilica

1.35

Drina Zvornik

1.59

Drina Zvornik creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 96 away

0.87

creates per match

0.71

2.47

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Budućnost Pilica

0.87

Drina Zvornik

0.71

allows per match

Budućnost Pilica

2.47

Drina Zvornik

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Budućnost Pilica+0.00on par

Drina Zvornik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Pilica ↓

Drina Zvornik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Budućnost Pilica or draw

57%

Budućnost Pilica or Drina Zvornik

76%

Draw or Drina Zvornik

68%

Winning margin

Budućnost Pilica wins by 2+

14%

Drina Zvornik wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Budućnost Pilica 1+ goals

74%

Budućnost Pilica 2+ goals

39%

Budućnost Pilica 3+ goals

15%

Drina Zvornik 1+ goals

80%

Drina Zvornik 2+ goals

47%

Drina Zvornik 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Pilica (draw refunded)

43%

Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Pilica at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Drina Zvornik away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.83 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Pilica attack 0.87 + Drina Zvornik defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.35

Drina Zvornik attack 0.71 + Budućnost Pilica defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Budućnost Pilica scores more

32%

level

24%

Drina Zvornik scores more

43%

Drina Zvornik at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Drina Zvornik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff