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Drina Zvornik vs BSK Banja Luka — 1st League - RS 2019

Drina Zvornik
Drina Zvornik
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
BSK Banja Luka
BSK Banja Luka
10/13/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 11Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Drina Zvornik54%
×Draw24%
BSK Banja Luka22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drina Zvornik
1.71
BSK Banja Luka
1.00

Drina Zvornik creates 71% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 48 away

creates per match

Drina Zvornik
1.93
BSK Banja Luka
1.27

allows per match

Drina Zvornik
0.73
BSK Banja Luka
1.50

finishing

Drina Zvornik+0.00on par
BSK Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drina Zvornik ↓

BSK Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Drina Zvornik or draw
78%
Drina Zvornik or BSK Banja Luka
76%
Draw or BSK Banja Luka
46%

Winning margin

Drina Zvornik wins by 2+
30%
BSK Banja Luka wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Drina Zvornik 1+ goals
82%
Drina Zvornik 2+ goals
51%
Drina Zvornik 3+ goals
24%
BSK Banja Luka 1+ goals
63%
BSK Banja Luka 2+ goals
26%
BSK Banja Luka 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)
71%
BSK Banja Luka (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drina Zvornik at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.73 · 95 matches

BSK Banja Luka away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.50 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drina Zvornik attack 1.93 + BSK Banja Luka defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.71

BSK Banja Luka attack 1.27 + Drina Zvornik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Drina Zvornik scores more
54%
level
24%
BSK Banja Luka scores more
22%

Drina Zvornik at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Drina Zvornik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Drina Zvornik 0–1 BSK Banja Luka

BSK Banja Luka beat Drina Zvornik 1-0 in 1st League - RS on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Zvornik.