BSK Banja Luka 2–1 Drina Zvornik: Result & Stats

BSK Banja Luka

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Drina Zvornik

10/19/2025

1st League - RS · RS - 12Pomocni Teren Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

BSK Banja Luka66%

×Draw20%

Drina Zvornik13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSK Banja LukaExpected goals in this matchDrina Zvornik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.76

BSK Banja Luka

1.99

Drina Zvornik

0.76

BSK Banja Luka creates 162% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 96 away

2.14

creates per match

0.71

0.82

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

BSK Banja Luka

2.14

Drina Zvornik

0.71

allows per match

BSK Banja Luka

0.82

Drina Zvornik

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSK Banja Luka+0.00on par

Drina Zvornik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSK Banja Luka ↓

Drina Zvornik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

BSK Banja Luka or draw

87%

BSK Banja Luka or Drina Zvornik

80%

Draw or Drina Zvornik

34%

Winning margin

BSK Banja Luka wins by 2+

41%

Drina Zvornik wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

BSK Banja Luka 1+ goals

86%

BSK Banja Luka 2+ goals

59%

BSK Banja Luka 3+ goals

32%

Drina Zvornik 1+ goals

53%

Drina Zvornik 2+ goals

18%

Drina Zvornik 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

BSK Banja Luka (draw refunded)

83%

Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSK Banja Luka at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.82 · 49 matches

Drina Zvornik away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.83 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSK Banja Luka attack 2.14 + Drina Zvornik defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.99

Drina Zvornik attack 0.71 + BSK Banja Luka defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

BSK Banja Luka scores more

66%

level

20%

Drina Zvornik scores more

13%

BSK Banja Luka at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "BSK Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff