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Drenovets vs Botev Vratsa II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Drenovets
Drenovets
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
2/26/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 19Stadion Drenovets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Drenovets49%
×Draw22%
Botev Vratsa II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drenovets
1.89
Botev Vratsa II
1.39

Drenovets creates 36% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 61 away

creates per match

Drenovets
1.96
Botev Vratsa II
1.16

allows per match

Drenovets
1.61
Botev Vratsa II
1.82

finishing

Drenovets+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drenovets ↓

Botev Vratsa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Drenovets or draw
72%
Drenovets or Botev Vratsa II
78%
Draw or Botev Vratsa II
51%

Winning margin

Drenovets wins by 2+
27%
Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Drenovets 1+ goals
85%
Drenovets 2+ goals
56%
Drenovets 3+ goals
29%
Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
75%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
40%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Drenovets (draw refunded)
63%
Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drenovets at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.61 · 67 matches

Botev Vratsa II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drenovets attack 1.96 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.89

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.16 + Drenovets defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Drenovets scores more
49%
level
22%
Botev Vratsa II scores more
28%

Drenovets at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Drenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Drenovets 0–1 Botev Vratsa II

Botev Vratsa II beat Drenovets 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Drenovets in Drenovets.