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Botev Vratsa II vs Drenovets — Third League - Northwest 2018

Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
FT
2 – 1
Drenovets
Drenovets
3/16/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 19Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Botev Vratsa II58%
×Draw21%
Drenovets21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa II
2.08
Drenovets
1.17

Botev Vratsa II creates 78% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 68 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.61
Drenovets
0.76

allows per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.58
Drenovets
2.56

finishing

Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par
Drenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa II ↓

Drenovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa II or draw
79%
Botev Vratsa II or Drenovets
79%
Draw or Drenovets
42%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
35%
Drenovets wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
87%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
61%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
34%
Drenovets 1+ goals
69%
Drenovets 2+ goals
33%
Drenovets 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
73%
Drenovets (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa II at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 62 matches

Drenovets away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.61 + Drenovets defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.08

Drenovets attack 0.76 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Botev Vratsa II scores more
58%
level
21%
Drenovets scores more
21%

Botev Vratsa II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Botev Vratsa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Vratsa II vs Drenovets

Botev Vratsa II beat Drenovets 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Vratsa.