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Drenica Skënderaj vs Ballkani — Superliga 2019

Drenica Skënderaj
Drenica Skënderaj
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ballkani
Ballkani
4/30/2026SuperligaSuperliga · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Drenica Skënderaj32%
×Draw27%
Ballkani41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drenica Skënderaj
1.17
Ballkani
1.36

Ballkani creates 16% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 124 away

creates per match

Drenica Skënderaj
1.34
Ballkani
1.48

allows per match

Drenica Skënderaj
1.25
Ballkani
0.99

finishing

Drenica Skënderaj+0.00on par
Ballkani+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drenica Skënderaj ↓

Ballkani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Drenica Skënderaj or draw
59%
Drenica Skënderaj or Ballkani
73%
Draw or Ballkani
68%

Winning margin

Drenica Skënderaj wins by 2+
13%
Ballkani wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Drenica Skënderaj 1+ goals
69%
Drenica Skënderaj 2+ goals
33%
Drenica Skënderaj 3+ goals
11%
Ballkani 1+ goals
74%
Ballkani 2+ goals
39%
Ballkani 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Drenica Skënderaj (draw refunded)
44%
Ballkani (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drenica Skënderaj at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.25 · 88 matches

Ballkani away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.99 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drenica Skënderaj attack 1.34 + Ballkani defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ballkani attack 1.48 + Drenica Skënderaj defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Drenica Skënderaj scores more
32%
level
27%
Ballkani scores more
41%

Ballkani at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ballkani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Drenica Skënderaj 1–2 Ballkani

Ballkani beat Drenica Skënderaj 2-1 in Superliga on April 30, 2026.