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Ballkani vs Drenica Skënderaj — Superliga 2019

Ballkani
Ballkani
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Drenica Skënderaj
Drenica Skënderaj
9/14/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 4Stadiumi i qytetit Suharekë

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Ballkani59%
×Draw23%
Drenica Skënderaj18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballkani
1.83
Drenica Skënderaj
0.89

Ballkani creates 106% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 88 away

creates per match

Ballkani
2.07
Drenica Skënderaj
0.90

allows per match

Ballkani
0.88
Drenica Skënderaj
1.59

finishing

Ballkani+0.00on par
Drenica Skënderaj+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballkani ↓

Drenica Skënderaj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ballkani or draw
82%
Ballkani or Drenica Skënderaj
77%
Draw or Drenica Skënderaj
41%

Winning margin

Ballkani wins by 2+
34%
Drenica Skënderaj wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ballkani 1+ goals
84%
Ballkani 2+ goals
54%
Ballkani 3+ goals
28%
Drenica Skënderaj 1+ goals
59%
Drenica Skënderaj 2+ goals
22%
Drenica Skënderaj 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ballkani (draw refunded)
77%
Drenica Skënderaj (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballkani at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.88 · 125 matches

Drenica Skënderaj away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.59 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballkani attack 2.07 + Drenica Skënderaj defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.83

Drenica Skënderaj attack 0.90 + Ballkani defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ballkani scores more
59%
level
23%
Drenica Skënderaj scores more
18%

Ballkani at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ballkani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ballkani vs Drenica Skënderaj

Ballkani beat Drenica Skënderaj 3-0 in Superliga on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit Suharekë in Suharekë (Suva Reka).