Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dreams vs Berekum Chelsea — Premier League 2019

Dreams
Dreams
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
5/25/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 32Tuba Astro Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Dreams59%
×Draw25%
Berekum Chelsea16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dreams
1.60
Berekum Chelsea
0.71

Dreams creates 125% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 108 away

creates per match

Dreams
1.63
Berekum Chelsea
0.73

allows per match

Dreams
0.70
Berekum Chelsea
1.57

finishing

Dreams+0.00on par
Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dreams ↓

Berekum Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dreams or draw
84%
Dreams or Berekum Chelsea
75%
Draw or Berekum Chelsea
41%

Winning margin

Dreams wins by 2+
32%
Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dreams 1+ goals
80%
Dreams 2+ goals
47%
Dreams 3+ goals
22%
Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
51%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
16%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dreams (draw refunded)
78%
Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dreams at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.70 · 108 matches

Berekum Chelsea away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dreams attack 1.63 + Berekum Chelsea defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Berekum Chelsea attack 0.73 + Dreams defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dreams scores more
59%
level
25%
Berekum Chelsea scores more
16%

Dreams at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dreams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dreams vs Berekum Chelsea

Dreams beat Berekum Chelsea 1-0 in Premier League on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Tuba Astro Turf in Kokrobite.