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Berekum Chelsea vs Dreams — Premier League 2019

Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dreams
Dreams
5/10/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 32Golden City Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Berekum Chelsea51%
×Draw29%
Dreams20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berekum Chelsea
1.29
Dreams
0.68

Berekum Chelsea creates 90% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

creates per match

Berekum Chelsea
1.32
Dreams
0.77

allows per match

Berekum Chelsea
0.58
Dreams
1.27

finishing

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par
Dreams+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berekum Chelsea ↓

Dreams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Berekum Chelsea or draw
80%
Berekum Chelsea or Dreams
71%
Draw or Dreams
49%

Winning margin

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
24%
Dreams wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
72%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
37%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
14%
Dreams 1+ goals
49%
Dreams 2+ goals
15%
Dreams 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
72%
Dreams (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berekum Chelsea at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.58 · 110 matches

Dreams away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berekum Chelsea attack 1.32 + Dreams defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Dreams attack 0.77 + Berekum Chelsea defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Berekum Chelsea scores more
51%
level
29%
Dreams scores more
20%

Berekum Chelsea at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Berekum Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Berekum Chelsea 1–0 Dreams

Berekum Chelsea beat Dreams 1-0 in Premier League on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Golden City Park in Berekum.