Dreams 0–1 Berekum Chelsea: Result & Stats

Dreams

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Berekum Chelsea

K. Obeng 45+3'

2/6/2022

Premier League · Round 16Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Dreams58%

×Draw25%

Berekum Chelsea17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DreamsExpected goals in this matchBerekum Chelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.71

Dreams

1.59

Berekum Chelsea

0.71

Dreams creates 124% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 110 away

1.62

creates per match

0.72

0.71

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Dreams

1.62

Berekum Chelsea

0.72

allows per match

Dreams

0.71

Berekum Chelsea

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dreams+0.00on par

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dreams ↓

Berekum Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dreams or draw

83%

Dreams or Berekum Chelsea

75%

Draw or Berekum Chelsea

42%

Winning margin

Dreams wins by 2+

32%

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dreams 1+ goals

80%

Dreams 2+ goals

47%

Dreams 3+ goals

21%

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals

51%

Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals

16%

Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dreams (draw refunded)

78%

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dreams at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

Berekum Chelsea away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dreams attack 1.62 + Berekum Chelsea defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.59

Berekum Chelsea attack 0.72 + Dreams defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dreams scores more

58%

level

25%

Berekum Chelsea scores more

17%

Dreams at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dreams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

35'

K. Owusu

45+3'

K. Obeng

55'

S. Simba← S. Simba

55'

K. Karikari← K. Karikari

74'

A. Awudu← A. Awudu

77'

80'

90+4'

K. Owusu

90+4'

K. Owusu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff