Dravograd 5–1 Brežice: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Dravograd

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Brežice

P. Kogelnik 81', 22'

E. Adomako 54'

N. Pečnik 51', 20'

L. Duvnjak 59'

8/17/2019

2. SNL · Round 4Športni center Dravograd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dravograd41%

×Draw25%

Brežice34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DravogradExpected goals in this matchBrežice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.38

Dravograd

1.53

Brežice

1.38

Dravograd creates 11% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 37 away

1.20

creates per match

0.86

1.90

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Dravograd

1.20

Brežice

0.86

allows per match

Dravograd

1.90

Brežice

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dravograd+0.00on par

Brežice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dravograd ↓

Brežice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dravograd or draw

66%

Dravograd or Brežice

75%

Draw or Brežice

59%

Winning margin

Dravograd wins by 2+

20%

Brežice wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dravograd 1+ goals

78%

Dravograd 2+ goals

45%

Dravograd 3+ goals

20%

Brežice 1+ goals

75%

Brežice 2+ goals

40%

Brežice 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Dravograd (draw refunded)

54%

Brežice (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dravograd at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Brežice away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dravograd attack 1.20 + Brežice defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.53

Brežice attack 0.86 + Dravograd defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dravograd scores more

41%

level

25%

Brežice scores more

34%

Dravograd at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dravograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

22'

46'

46'

51'

54'

59'

61'

A. Vošnjak← N. Pečnik

69'

M. Verstovšek← S. Dobaj

76'

D. Bevk← E. Adomako

76'

V. Veneti← P. Turković

81'

P. Kogelnik

Dravograd

Brežice

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Pečnik

⚽2

Kogelnik

⚽

▼

Adomako

Manager: B. Kus

61'▲A. Vošnjak←▼N. Pečnik

69'▲M. Verstovšek←▼S. Dobaj

76'▲D. Bevk←▼E. Adomako

Dravograd substitutes

VošnjakVerstovšekBevkPešlPetekBrzinSmrtnik

Manager: V. Butorac

46'▲L. Filip←▼D. Božič

46'▲M. Ferić←▼F. Soldo

76'▲V. Veneti←▼P. Turković

Brežice substitutes

FilipFerićVenetiAšičHervolKomljenovićVidmar