Brežice 2–1 Dravograd: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Brežice

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Dravograd

D. Božič 39'

M. Perkovič 35'

P. Kogelnik 90'

11/23/2019

2. SNL · Round 19Stadion Brežice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Brežice58%

×Draw21%

Dravograd21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrežiceExpected goals in this matchDravograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.18

Brežice

2.10

Dravograd

1.18

Brežice creates 78% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 10 away

1.21

creates per match

1.10

1.26

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Brežice

1.21

Dravograd

1.10

allows per match

Brežice

1.26

Dravograd

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brežice+0.00on par

Dravograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brežice ↓

Dravograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Brežice or draw

79%

Brežice or Dravograd

79%

Draw or Dravograd

42%

Winning margin

Brežice wins by 2+

35%

Dravograd wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Brežice 1+ goals

88%

Brežice 2+ goals

62%

Brežice 3+ goals

35%

Dravograd 1+ goals

69%

Dravograd 2+ goals

33%

Dravograd 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Brežice (draw refunded)

74%

Dravograd (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brežice at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Dravograd away — creates 1.10, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brežice attack 1.21 + Dravograd defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Dravograd attack 1.10 + Brežice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Brežice scores more

58%

level

21%

Dravograd scores more

21%

Brežice at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Brežice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

M. Perkovič

39'

D. Božič

46'

E. Petek← L. Ferenčak

46'

T. Stefanović← A. Pešl

62'

L. Filip← D. Božič

72'

P. Vidmar← M. Predanič

77'

D. Bevk← D. Rogina

80'

J. Hervol← G. Diyoke

90'

P. Kogelnik

Brežice

Dravograd

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Božič

Soldo

Manager: S. Sešlar

62'▲L. Filip←▼D. Božič

72'▲P. Vidmar←▼M. Predanič

80'▲J. Hervol←▼G. Diyoke

Brežice substitutes

FilipVidmarHervolAšičMirkacAdamičVeneti

Manager: B. Kus

46'▲E. Petek←▼L. Ferenčak

46'▲T. Stefanović←▼A. Pešl

77'▲D. Bevk←▼D. Rogina

Dravograd substitutes

PetekStefanovićBevkValenteKitekDobajSmrtnik