Dragons 0–2 AS Cotonou: Result & Stats

Dragons

FT

0 – 2

AS Cotonou

4/12/2025

Championnat National · Group B - 26Stade Charles de Gaulle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Dragons43%

×Draw32%

AS Cotonou26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DragonsExpected goals in this matchAS Cotonou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.78

Dragons

1.09

AS Cotonou

0.78

Dragons creates 40% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 113 away

1.23

creates per match

0.88

0.69

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Dragons

1.23

AS Cotonou

0.88

allows per match

Dragons

0.69

AS Cotonou

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dragons+0.00on par

AS Cotonou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragons ↓

AS Cotonou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Dragons or draw

74%

Dragons or AS Cotonou

68%

Draw or AS Cotonou

57%

Winning margin

Dragons wins by 2+

17%

AS Cotonou wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dragons 1+ goals

66%

Dragons 2+ goals

30%

Dragons 3+ goals

10%

AS Cotonou 1+ goals

54%

AS Cotonou 2+ goals

18%

AS Cotonou 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dragons (draw refunded)

62%

AS Cotonou (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragons at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 117 matches

AS Cotonou away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.95 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragons attack 1.23 + AS Cotonou defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

AS Cotonou attack 0.88 + Dragons defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dragons scores more

43%

level

32%

AS Cotonou scores more

26%

Dragons at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dragons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff