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AS Cotonou vs Dragons — Championnat National 2019

AS Cotonou
AS Cotonou
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dragons
Dragons
11/24/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 9Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

AS Cotonou43%
×Draw32%
Dragons25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Cotonou
1.06
Dragons
0.74

AS Cotonou creates 43% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 115 away

creates per match

AS Cotonou
1.12
Dragons
0.83

allows per match

AS Cotonou
0.66
Dragons
1.01

finishing

AS Cotonou+0.00on par
Dragons+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Cotonou ↓

Dragons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

AS Cotonou or draw
75%
AS Cotonou or Dragons
68%
Draw or Dragons
57%

Winning margin

AS Cotonou wins by 2+
17%
Dragons wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

AS Cotonou 1+ goals
65%
AS Cotonou 2+ goals
29%
AS Cotonou 3+ goals
9%
Dragons 1+ goals
52%
Dragons 2+ goals
17%
Dragons 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AS Cotonou (draw refunded)
63%
Dragons (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Cotonou at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.66 · 110 matches

Dragons away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.01 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Cotonou attack 1.12 + Dragons defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Dragons attack 0.83 + AS Cotonou defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AS Cotonou scores more
43%
level
32%
Dragons scores more
25%

AS Cotonou at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AS Cotonou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: AS Cotonou 0–1 Dragons

Dragons beat AS Cotonou 1-0 in Championnat National on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa in Cotonou.