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Dragão vs Bravos do Maquis FC — Girabola 2019

Dragão
Dragão
FT
0 – 0
Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
4/23/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 26Estádio 4 de Janeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dragão29%
×Draw35%
Bravos do Maquis FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dragão
0.76
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.87

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 106 away

creates per match

Dragão
0.43
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.95

allows per match

Dragão
0.79
Bravos do Maquis FC
1.09

finishing

Dragão+0.00on par
Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragão ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Dragão or draw
64%
Dragão or Bravos do Maquis FC
65%
Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC
71%

Winning margin

Dragão wins by 2+
9%
Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dragão 1+ goals
53%
Dragão 2+ goals
18%
Dragão 3+ goals
4%
Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
58%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
22%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dragão (draw refunded)
45%
Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragão at home — creates 0.43, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragão attack 0.43 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.76

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.95 + Dragão defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dragão scores more
29%
level
35%
Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
36%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dragão vs Bravos do Maquis FC

Dragão and Bravos do Maquis FC drew 0-0 in Girabola on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio 4 de Janeiro in Uíge.