Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bravos do Maquis FC vs Dragão — Girabola 2019

Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
FT
3 – 0
Dragão
Dragão
12/3/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 11Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC71%
×Draw19%
Dragão10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravos do Maquis FC
2.04
Dragão
0.59

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 246% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 14 away

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.30
Dragão
0.43

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
0.75
Dragão
2.79

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par
Dragão+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

Dragão →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw
90%
Bravos do Maquis FC or Dragão
81%
Draw or Dragão
29%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
46%
Dragão wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
87%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
60%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
33%
Dragão 1+ goals
45%
Dragão 2+ goals
12%
Dragão 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
88%
Dragão (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 105 matches

Dragão away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.30 + Dragão defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.04

Dragão attack 0.43 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
71%
level
19%
Dragão scores more
10%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bravos do Maquis FC vs Dragão

Bravos do Maquis FC beat Dragão 3-0 in Girabola on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe in Moxico.