Doxa 0–1 Apoel Nicosia: Result & Stats

Doxa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Apoel Nicosia

11/13/2022

1. Division · Round 11Stadio Peristerona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Doxa26%

×Draw27%

Apoel Nicosia47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoxaExpected goals in this matchApoel Nicosia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.42

Doxa

0.99

Apoel Nicosia

1.42

Apoel Nicosia creates 43% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 120 away

0.84

creates per match

1.39

1.45

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Doxa

0.84

Apoel Nicosia

1.39

allows per match

Doxa

1.45

Apoel Nicosia

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doxa+0.00on par

Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doxa ↓

Apoel Nicosia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Doxa or draw

53%

Doxa or Apoel Nicosia

73%

Draw or Apoel Nicosia

74%

Winning margin

Doxa wins by 2+

9%

Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Doxa 1+ goals

63%

Doxa 2+ goals

26%

Doxa 3+ goals

8%

Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals

76%

Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals

41%

Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Doxa (draw refunded)

36%

Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doxa at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.45 · 88 matches

Apoel Nicosia away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doxa attack 0.84 + Apoel Nicosia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.99

Apoel Nicosia attack 1.39 + Doxa defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Doxa scores more

26%

level

27%

Apoel Nicosia scores more

47%

Apoel Nicosia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Apoel Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff