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Apoel Nicosia vs Doxa — 1. Division 2019

Apoel Nicosia
Apoel Nicosia
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Doxa
Doxa
12/3/20231. Division1. Division · Round 13Neo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Apoel Nicosia55%
×Draw25%
Doxa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apoel Nicosia
1.58
Doxa
0.84

Apoel Nicosia creates 88% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 87 away

creates per match

Apoel Nicosia
1.61
Doxa
0.92

allows per match

Apoel Nicosia
0.76
Doxa
1.54

finishing

Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par
Doxa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apoel Nicosia ↓

Doxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Apoel Nicosia or draw
80%
Apoel Nicosia or Doxa
75%
Draw or Doxa
45%

Winning margin

Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+
29%
Doxa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals
79%
Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals
47%
Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals
21%
Doxa 1+ goals
57%
Doxa 2+ goals
21%
Doxa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)
73%
Doxa (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apoel Nicosia at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.76 · 119 matches

Doxa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.54 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apoel Nicosia attack 1.61 + Doxa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Doxa attack 0.92 + Apoel Nicosia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Apoel Nicosia scores more
55%
level
25%
Doxa scores more
20%

Apoel Nicosia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Apoel Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Apoel Nicosia vs Doxa

Apoel Nicosia beat Doxa 5-0 in 1. Division on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Neo GSP in Levkosía.