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Douglas Haig vs Ciudad de Bolívar — Torneo Federal A 2018

Douglas Haig
Douglas Haig
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ciudad de Bolívar
Ciudad de Bolívar
11/26/2023Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 3rd RoundEstadio Miguel Morales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Douglas Haig44%
×Draw31%
Ciudad de Bolívar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Douglas Haig
1.13
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.79

Douglas Haig creates 43% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 78 away

creates per match

Douglas Haig
1.27
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.82

allows per match

Douglas Haig
0.76
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.99

finishing

Douglas Haig+0.00on par
Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douglas Haig ↓

Ciudad de Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Douglas Haig or draw
74%
Douglas Haig or Ciudad de Bolívar
69%
Draw or Ciudad de Bolívar
56%

Winning margin

Douglas Haig wins by 2+
18%
Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Douglas Haig 1+ goals
68%
Douglas Haig 2+ goals
31%
Douglas Haig 3+ goals
11%
Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals
55%
Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals
19%
Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Douglas Haig (draw refunded)
63%
Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douglas Haig at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.76 · 116 matches

Ciudad de Bolívar away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.99 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douglas Haig attack 1.27 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 0.82 + Douglas Haig defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Douglas Haig scores more
44%
level
31%
Ciudad de Bolívar scores more
26%

Douglas Haig at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Douglas Haig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Douglas Haig 2–1 Ciudad de Bolívar

Douglas Haig beat Ciudad de Bolívar 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Morales in Pergamino, Provincia de Buenos Aires.