Ciudad de Bolívar 2–0 Douglas Haig: Result & Stats

Ciudad de Bolívar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Douglas Haig

10/23/2022

Torneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundEstadio Municipal Eva Perón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Ciudad de Bolívar50%

×Draw29%

Douglas Haig21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ciudad de BolívarExpected goals in this matchDouglas Haig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.73

Ciudad de Bolívar

1.29

Douglas Haig

0.73

Ciudad de Bolívar creates 77% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 113 away

1.52

creates per match

0.91

0.54

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Ciudad de Bolívar

1.52

Douglas Haig

0.91

allows per match

Ciudad de Bolívar

0.54

Douglas Haig

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par

Douglas Haig+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Bolívar ↓

Douglas Haig →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ciudad de Bolívar or draw

79%

Ciudad de Bolívar or Douglas Haig

71%

Draw or Douglas Haig

50%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+

23%

Douglas Haig wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals

72%

Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals

37%

Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals

14%

Douglas Haig 1+ goals

52%

Douglas Haig 2+ goals

17%

Douglas Haig 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)

70%

Douglas Haig (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Bolívar at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.54 · 80 matches

Douglas Haig away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 1.52 + Douglas Haig defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Douglas Haig attack 0.91 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ciudad de Bolívar scores more

50%

level

29%

Douglas Haig scores more

21%

Ciudad de Bolívar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ciudad de Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff