Douglas Haig 2–2 Central Norte: Result & Stats

Douglas Haig

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Central Norte

6/27/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 16Estadio Miguel Morales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Douglas Haig43%

×Draw30%

Central Norte27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Douglas HaigExpected goals in this matchCentral Norte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.88

Douglas Haig

1.18

Central Norte

0.88

Douglas Haig creates 34% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 76 away

1.27

creates per match

1.00

0.76

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Douglas Haig

1.27

Central Norte

1.00

allows per match

Douglas Haig

0.76

Central Norte

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Douglas Haig+0.00on par

Central Norte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douglas Haig ↓

Central Norte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Douglas Haig or draw

73%

Douglas Haig or Central Norte

70%

Draw or Central Norte

57%

Winning margin

Douglas Haig wins by 2+

18%

Central Norte wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Douglas Haig 1+ goals

69%

Douglas Haig 2+ goals

33%

Douglas Haig 3+ goals

12%

Central Norte 1+ goals

59%

Central Norte 2+ goals

22%

Central Norte 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Douglas Haig (draw refunded)

61%

Central Norte (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douglas Haig at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.76 · 116 matches

Central Norte away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douglas Haig attack 1.27 + Central Norte defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Central Norte attack 1.00 + Douglas Haig defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Douglas Haig scores more

43%

level

30%

Central Norte scores more

27%

Douglas Haig at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Douglas Haig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff