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Central Norte vs Douglas Haig — Torneo Federal A 2018

Central Norte
Central Norte
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Douglas Haig
Douglas Haig
10/9/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 33Estadio Dr. Luis Güemes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Central Norte51%
×Draw28%
Douglas Haig21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Norte
1.38
Douglas Haig
0.78

Central Norte creates 77% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 113 away

creates per match

Central Norte
1.69
Douglas Haig
0.91

allows per match

Central Norte
0.65
Douglas Haig
1.07

finishing

Central Norte+0.00on par
Douglas Haig+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Norte ↓

Douglas Haig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Central Norte or draw
79%
Central Norte or Douglas Haig
72%
Draw or Douglas Haig
49%

Winning margin

Central Norte wins by 2+
25%
Douglas Haig wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Central Norte 1+ goals
75%
Central Norte 2+ goals
40%
Central Norte 3+ goals
16%
Douglas Haig 1+ goals
54%
Douglas Haig 2+ goals
18%
Douglas Haig 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Central Norte (draw refunded)
71%
Douglas Haig (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Norte at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.65 · 77 matches

Douglas Haig away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Norte attack 1.69 + Douglas Haig defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.38

Douglas Haig attack 0.91 + Central Norte defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Central Norte scores more
51%
level
28%
Douglas Haig scores more
21%

Central Norte at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Central Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Norte vs Douglas Haig

Central Norte and Douglas Haig drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Luis Güemes in Salta, Provincia de Salta.