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Douannes de Sikasso vs Djoliba — Première Division 2019

Douannes de Sikasso
Douannes de Sikasso
FT
0 – 0
Djoliba
Djoliba
1/23/2022Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 12Stade Babemba Traoré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Douannes de Sikasso19%
×Draw32%
Djoliba49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Douannes de Sikasso
0.59
Djoliba
1.14

Djoliba creates 93% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 95 away

creates per match

Douannes de Sikasso
0.65
Djoliba
1.39

allows per match

Douannes de Sikasso
0.88
Djoliba
0.54

finishing

Douannes de Sikasso+0.00on par
Djoliba+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douannes de Sikasso ↓

Djoliba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–120%
0–212%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Douannes de Sikasso or draw
51%
Douannes de Sikasso or Djoliba
68%
Draw or Djoliba
81%

Winning margin

Douannes de Sikasso wins by 2+
5%
Djoliba wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Douannes de Sikasso 1+ goals
45%
Douannes de Sikasso 2+ goals
12%
Douannes de Sikasso 3+ goals
2%
Djoliba 1+ goals
68%
Djoliba 2+ goals
32%
Djoliba 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Douannes de Sikasso (draw refunded)
28%
Djoliba (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douannes de Sikasso at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Djoliba away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douannes de Sikasso attack 0.65 + Djoliba defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.59

Djoliba attack 1.39 + Douannes de Sikasso defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Douannes de Sikasso scores more
19%
level
32%
Djoliba scores more
49%

Djoliba at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Douannes de Sikasso vs Djoliba

Douannes de Sikasso and Djoliba drew 0-0 in Première Division on January 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Babemba Traoré in Sikasso.