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Djoliba vs Douannes de Sikasso — Première Division 2019

Djoliba
Djoliba
FT
1 – 0
Douannes de Sikasso
Douannes de Sikasso
6/12/2022Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 29Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Djoliba63%
×Draw25%
Douannes de Sikasso12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djoliba
1.56
Douannes de Sikasso
0.53

Djoliba creates 194% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 26 away

creates per match

Djoliba
1.57
Douannes de Sikasso
0.58

allows per match

Djoliba
0.49
Douannes de Sikasso
1.54

finishing

Djoliba+0.00on par
Douannes de Sikasso+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djoliba ↓

Douannes de Sikasso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Djoliba or draw
88%
Djoliba or Douannes de Sikasso
75%
Draw or Douannes de Sikasso
37%

Winning margin

Djoliba wins by 2+
34%
Douannes de Sikasso wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Djoliba 1+ goals
79%
Djoliba 2+ goals
46%
Djoliba 3+ goals
21%
Douannes de Sikasso 1+ goals
41%
Douannes de Sikasso 2+ goals
10%
Douannes de Sikasso 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Djoliba (draw refunded)
84%
Douannes de Sikasso (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djoliba at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.49 · 97 matches

Douannes de Sikasso away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djoliba attack 1.57 + Douannes de Sikasso defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Douannes de Sikasso attack 0.58 + Djoliba defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Djoliba scores more
63%
level
25%
Douannes de Sikasso scores more
12%

Djoliba at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djoliba vs Douannes de Sikasso

Djoliba beat Douannes de Sikasso 1-0 in Première Division on June 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta in Bamako.