Douannes de Sikasso 1–4 Bakaridjan: Result & Stats

Douannes de Sikasso

FT

1 – 4

Bakaridjan

6/5/2022

Première Division · Round 28Stade Babemba Traoré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Douannes de Sikasso28%

×Draw34%

Bakaridjan39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Douannes de SikassoExpected goals in this matchBakaridjan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

0.95

Douannes de Sikasso

0.75

Bakaridjan

0.95

Bakaridjan creates 27% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 94 away

0.65

creates per match

1.01

0.88

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Douannes de Sikasso

0.65

Bakaridjan

1.01

allows per match

Douannes de Sikasso

0.88

Bakaridjan

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Douannes de Sikasso+0.00on par

Bakaridjan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douannes de Sikasso ↓

Bakaridjan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–117%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Douannes de Sikasso or draw

61%

Douannes de Sikasso or Bakaridjan

66%

Draw or Bakaridjan

72%

Winning margin

Douannes de Sikasso wins by 2+

8%

Bakaridjan wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Douannes de Sikasso 1+ goals

53%

Douannes de Sikasso 2+ goals

17%

Douannes de Sikasso 3+ goals

4%

Bakaridjan 1+ goals

61%

Bakaridjan 2+ goals

25%

Bakaridjan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Douannes de Sikasso (draw refunded)

42%

Bakaridjan (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douannes de Sikasso at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Bakaridjan away — creates 1.01, concedes 0.85 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douannes de Sikasso attack 0.65 + Bakaridjan defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.75

Bakaridjan attack 1.01 + Douannes de Sikasso defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Douannes de Sikasso scores more

28%

level

34%

Bakaridjan scores more

39%

Bakaridjan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bakaridjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff