Bakaridjan 3–1 Douannes de Sikasso: Result & Stats

Bakaridjan

FT

3 – 1

Douannes de Sikasso

1/15/2022

Première Division · Round 11Stade De Barouéli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bakaridjan49%

×Draw30%

Douannes de Sikasso21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BakaridjanExpected goals in this matchDouannes de Sikasso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.70

Bakaridjan

1.25

Douannes de Sikasso

0.70

Bakaridjan creates 79% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 26 away

0.97

creates per match

0.58

0.83

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Bakaridjan

0.97

Douannes de Sikasso

0.58

allows per match

Bakaridjan

0.83

Douannes de Sikasso

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bakaridjan+0.00on par

Douannes de Sikasso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bakaridjan ↓

Douannes de Sikasso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bakaridjan or draw

79%

Bakaridjan or Douannes de Sikasso

70%

Draw or Douannes de Sikasso

51%

Winning margin

Bakaridjan wins by 2+

23%

Douannes de Sikasso wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bakaridjan 1+ goals

71%

Bakaridjan 2+ goals

36%

Bakaridjan 3+ goals

13%

Douannes de Sikasso 1+ goals

50%

Douannes de Sikasso 2+ goals

16%

Douannes de Sikasso 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bakaridjan (draw refunded)

70%

Douannes de Sikasso (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bakaridjan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.83 · 93 matches

Douannes de Sikasso away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bakaridjan attack 0.97 + Douannes de Sikasso defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Douannes de Sikasso attack 0.58 + Bakaridjan defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bakaridjan scores more

49%

level

30%

Douannes de Sikasso scores more

21%

Bakaridjan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bakaridjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff