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Douanes vs Coton Sport Ouidah — CAF Champions League 2019

Douanes
Douanes
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coton Sport Ouidah
Coton Sport Ouidah
8/17/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundStade 26 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Douanes51%
×Draw42%
Coton Sport Ouidah7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Douanes
0.83
Coton Sport Ouidah
0.17

Douanes creates 388% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Douanes
0.33
Coton Sport Ouidah
0.00

allows per match

Douanes
0.33
Coton Sport Ouidah
1.33

finishing

Douanes+0.00on par
Coton Sport Ouidah+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Under
  • Under92
  • Over8

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

91%No
  • No91
  • Yes9

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douanes ↓

Coton Sport Ouidah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–037%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–031%
1–15%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–12%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (37%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
63%37%1.5
26%74%2.5
8%92%3.5
2%98%4.5
0%100%

Double chance

Douanes or draw
93%
Douanes or Coton Sport Ouidah
58%
Draw or Coton Sport Ouidah
49%

Winning margin

Douanes wins by 2+
18%
Coton Sport Ouidah wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Douanes 1+ goals
56%
Douanes 2+ goals
20%
Douanes 3+ goals
5%
Coton Sport Ouidah 1+ goals
16%
Coton Sport Ouidah 2+ goals
1%
Coton Sport Ouidah 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Douanes (draw refunded)
87%
Coton Sport Ouidah (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
4%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douanes at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Coton Sport Ouidah away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douanes attack 0.33 + Coton Sport Ouidah defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Coton Sport Ouidah attack 0.00 + Douanes defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Douanes scores more
51%
level
42%
Coton Sport Ouidah scores more
7%

Douanes at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Douanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Douanes vs Coton Sport Ouidah

Douanes and Coton Sport Ouidah drew 0-0 in CAF Champions League on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stade 26 Mars in Bamako.