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Coton Sport Ouidah vs Douanes — CAF Champions League 2019

Coton Sport Ouidah
Coton Sport Ouidah
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Douanes
Douanes
8/25/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundStade de l'Amitié

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Coton Sport Ouidah30%
×Draw39%
Douanes30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coton Sport Ouidah
0.67
Douanes
0.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Coton Sport Ouidah
0.67
Douanes
0.33

allows per match

Coton Sport Ouidah
1.00
Douanes
0.67

finishing

Coton Sport Ouidah+0.00on par
Douanes+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Under
  • Under85
  • Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coton Sport Ouidah ↓

Douanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–026%
0–118%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (26%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
74%26%1.5
39%61%2.5
15%85%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Coton Sport Ouidah or draw
70%
Coton Sport Ouidah or Douanes
61%
Draw or Douanes
70%

Winning margin

Coton Sport Ouidah wins by 2+
9%
Douanes wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Coton Sport Ouidah 1+ goals
49%
Coton Sport Ouidah 2+ goals
15%
Coton Sport Ouidah 3+ goals
3%
Douanes 1+ goals
49%
Douanes 2+ goals
15%
Douanes 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Coton Sport Ouidah (draw refunded)
50%
Douanes (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coton Sport Ouidah at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Douanes away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coton Sport Ouidah attack 0.67 + Douanes defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Douanes attack 0.33 + Coton Sport Ouidah defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 30%?"

Coton Sport Ouidah scores more
30%
level
39%
Douanes scores more
30%

Coton Sport Ouidah at 30% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 30% does not mean "Coton Sport Ouidah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Coton Sport Ouidah 1–1 Douanes

Coton Sport Ouidah and Douanes drew 1-1 in CAF Champions League on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de l'Amitié in Cotonou.