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Dos Hermanas vs Ceuta II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Dos Hermanas
Dos Hermanas
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ceuta II
Ceuta II
J. Reixach 90'
D. Vargas 81'
L. Guerrero 35'
3/7/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dos Hermanas63%
×Draw22%
Ceuta II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dos Hermanas
1.88
Ceuta II
0.79

Dos Hermanas creates 138% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

creates per match

Dos Hermanas
2.35
Ceuta II
0.82

allows per match

Dos Hermanas
0.76
Ceuta II
1.40

finishing

Dos Hermanas+0.00on par
Ceuta II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dos Hermanas ↓

Ceuta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dos Hermanas or draw
85%
Dos Hermanas or Ceuta II
78%
Draw or Ceuta II
37%

Winning margin

Dos Hermanas wins by 2+
38%
Ceuta II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dos Hermanas 1+ goals
85%
Dos Hermanas 2+ goals
56%
Dos Hermanas 3+ goals
29%
Ceuta II 1+ goals
55%
Ceuta II 2+ goals
19%
Ceuta II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dos Hermanas (draw refunded)
81%
Ceuta II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dos Hermanas at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Ceuta II away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dos Hermanas attack 2.35 + Ceuta II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.88

Ceuta II attack 0.82 + Dos Hermanas defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Dos Hermanas scores more
63%
level
22%
Ceuta II scores more
15%

Dos Hermanas at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dos Hermanas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
L. Guerrero
81'
D. Vargas
90'
J. Reixach

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dos Hermanas 3 – 0 Ceuta II

Dos Hermanas beat Ceuta II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 7, 2026.

Goals: L. Guerrero (35'), D. Vargas (81'), J. Reixach (90').