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Ceuta II vs Dos Hermanas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ceuta II
Ceuta II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Dos Hermanas
Dos Hermanas
5/17/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ceuta II42%
×Draw26%
Dos Hermanas32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceuta II
1.44
Dos Hermanas
1.22

Ceuta II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ceuta II
1.35
Dos Hermanas
1.74

allows per match

Ceuta II
0.70
Dos Hermanas
1.53

finishing

Ceuta II+0.00on par
Dos Hermanas+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceuta II ↓

Dos Hermanas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ceuta II or draw
68%
Ceuta II or Dos Hermanas
74%
Draw or Dos Hermanas
58%

Winning margin

Ceuta II wins by 2+
20%
Dos Hermanas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ceuta II 1+ goals
76%
Ceuta II 2+ goals
42%
Ceuta II 3+ goals
18%
Dos Hermanas 1+ goals
70%
Dos Hermanas 2+ goals
34%
Dos Hermanas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ceuta II (draw refunded)
57%
Dos Hermanas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceuta II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.70 · 83 matches

Dos Hermanas away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceuta II attack 1.35 + Dos Hermanas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dos Hermanas attack 1.74 + Ceuta II defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ceuta II scores more
42%
level
26%
Dos Hermanas scores more
32%

Ceuta II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ceuta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ceuta II vs Dos Hermanas

Ceuta II and Dos Hermanas drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on May 17, 2026.