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Dos Hermanas vs Castilleja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Dos Hermanas
Dos Hermanas
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Castilleja
Castilleja
Toni Garcia 87', 49'
P. Garcia 73'
L. Guerrero 45'
D. Vargas 17'
D. Matos 12'
3/22/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dos Hermanas65%
×Draw20%
Castilleja15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dos Hermanas
2.03
Castilleja
0.85

Dos Hermanas creates 139% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

creates per match

Dos Hermanas
2.35
Castilleja
0.94

allows per match

Dos Hermanas
0.76
Castilleja
1.71

finishing

Dos Hermanas+0.00on par
Castilleja+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dos Hermanas ↓

Castilleja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dos Hermanas or draw
85%
Dos Hermanas or Castilleja
80%
Draw or Castilleja
35%

Winning margin

Dos Hermanas wins by 2+
40%
Castilleja wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dos Hermanas 1+ goals
87%
Dos Hermanas 2+ goals
60%
Dos Hermanas 3+ goals
33%
Castilleja 1+ goals
57%
Castilleja 2+ goals
21%
Castilleja 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dos Hermanas (draw refunded)
81%
Castilleja (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dos Hermanas at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Castilleja away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dos Hermanas attack 2.35 + Castilleja defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.03

Castilleja attack 0.94 + Dos Hermanas defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Dos Hermanas scores more
65%
level
20%
Castilleja scores more
15%

Dos Hermanas at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Dos Hermanas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
D. Matos
17'
D. Vargas
45'
L. Guerrero
49'
Toni Garcia
73'
P. Garcia
87'
Toni Garcia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dos Hermanas 5 – 1 Castilleja

Dos Hermanas beat Castilleja 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 22, 2026.

Goals: D. Matos (12'), D. Vargas (17'), L. Guerrero (45'), Toni Garcia (49', 87'), P. Garcia (73').