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Castilleja vs Dos Hermanas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Castilleja
Castilleja
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dos Hermanas
Dos Hermanas
11/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 10Estadio Municipal Antonio Almendro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Castilleja31%
×Draw25%
Dos Hermanas44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castilleja
1.25
Dos Hermanas
1.53

Dos Hermanas creates 22% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 19 away

creates per match

Castilleja
0.97
Dos Hermanas
1.74

allows per match

Castilleja
1.32
Dos Hermanas
1.53

finishing

Castilleja+0.00on par
Dos Hermanas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castilleja ↓

Dos Hermanas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Castilleja or draw
56%
Castilleja or Dos Hermanas
75%
Draw or Dos Hermanas
69%

Winning margin

Castilleja wins by 2+
13%
Dos Hermanas wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Castilleja 1+ goals
71%
Castilleja 2+ goals
36%
Castilleja 3+ goals
13%
Dos Hermanas 1+ goals
78%
Dos Hermanas 2+ goals
45%
Dos Hermanas 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Castilleja (draw refunded)
42%
Dos Hermanas (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castilleja at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Dos Hermanas away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castilleja attack 0.97 + Dos Hermanas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dos Hermanas attack 1.74 + Castilleja defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Castilleja scores more
31%
level
25%
Dos Hermanas scores more
44%

Dos Hermanas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dos Hermanas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castilleja vs Dos Hermanas

Dos Hermanas beat Castilleja 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Antonio Almendro in Castilleja de la Cuesta.