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Dorostol vs Cherno more II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dorostol
Dorostol
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cherno more II
Cherno more II
3/26/2025Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 16Stadion Louis Eyer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Dorostol23%
×Draw24%
Cherno more II53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorostol
1.04
Cherno more II
1.69

Cherno more II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 58 away

creates per match

Dorostol
1.06
Cherno more II
1.88

allows per match

Dorostol
1.49
Cherno more II
1.03

finishing

Dorostol+0.00on par
Cherno more II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorostol ↓

Cherno more II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dorostol or draw
47%
Dorostol or Cherno more II
76%
Draw or Cherno more II
77%

Winning margin

Dorostol wins by 2+
9%
Cherno more II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Dorostol 1+ goals
65%
Dorostol 2+ goals
28%
Dorostol 3+ goals
9%
Cherno more II 1+ goals
82%
Cherno more II 2+ goals
50%
Cherno more II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dorostol (draw refunded)
31%
Cherno more II (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorostol at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 84 matches

Cherno more II away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorostol attack 1.06 + Cherno more II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Cherno more II attack 1.88 + Dorostol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dorostol scores more
23%
level
24%
Cherno more II scores more
53%

Cherno more II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cherno more II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Dorostol 0–0 Cherno more II

Dorostol and Cherno more II drew 0-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Louis Eyer in Silistra.