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Cherno more II vs Dorostol — Third League - Northeast 2018

Cherno more II
Cherno more II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dorostol
Dorostol
8/18/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 1Cherno More Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Cherno more II58%
×Draw21%
Dorostol21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno more II
2.02
Dorostol
1.13

Cherno more II creates 79% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 84 away

creates per match

Cherno more II
1.86
Dorostol
1.14

allows per match

Cherno more II
1.12
Dorostol
2.19

finishing

Cherno more II+0.00on par
Dorostol+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno more II ↓

Dorostol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Cherno more II or draw
79%
Cherno more II or Dorostol
79%
Draw or Dorostol
42%

Winning margin

Cherno more II wins by 2+
35%
Dorostol wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cherno more II 1+ goals
87%
Cherno more II 2+ goals
60%
Cherno more II 3+ goals
33%
Dorostol 1+ goals
68%
Dorostol 2+ goals
31%
Dorostol 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cherno more II (draw refunded)
73%
Dorostol (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno more II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Dorostol away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.19 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno more II attack 1.86 + Dorostol defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.02

Dorostol attack 1.14 + Cherno more II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cherno more II scores more
58%
level
21%
Dorostol scores more
21%

Cherno more II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cherno more II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cherno more II vs Dorostol

Cherno more II and Dorostol drew 1-1 in Third League - Northeast on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Cherno More Sports Complex in Varna.