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Dorogi FC vs Haladás VSE — NB III - Northwest 2019

Dorogi FC
Dorogi FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Haladás VSE
Haladás VSE
5/11/2025NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 28Buzánszky Jenő Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dorogi FC43%
×Draw25%
Haladás VSE32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorogi FC
1.50
Haladás VSE
1.25

Dorogi FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dorogi FC
1.47
Haladás VSE
1.27

allows per match

Dorogi FC
1.24
Haladás VSE
1.53

finishing

Dorogi FC+0.00on par
Haladás VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorogi FC ↓

Haladás VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dorogi FC or draw
68%
Dorogi FC or Haladás VSE
75%
Draw or Haladás VSE
57%

Winning margin

Dorogi FC wins by 2+
21%
Haladás VSE wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dorogi FC 1+ goals
78%
Dorogi FC 2+ goals
44%
Dorogi FC 3+ goals
19%
Haladás VSE 1+ goals
71%
Haladás VSE 2+ goals
36%
Haladás VSE 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dorogi FC (draw refunded)
58%
Haladás VSE (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorogi FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

Haladás VSE away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorogi FC attack 1.47 + Haladás VSE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Haladás VSE attack 1.27 + Dorogi FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dorogi FC scores more
43%
level
25%
Haladás VSE scores more
32%

Dorogi FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dorogi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dorogi FC vs Haladás VSE

Haladás VSE beat Dorogi FC 1-0 in NB III - Northwest on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Buzánszky Jenő Stadion in Dorog.