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Dorogi FC vs Csornai SE — NB III - Northwest 2019

Dorogi FC
Dorogi FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Csornai SE
Csornai SE
10/1/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 9Buzánszky Jenő Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dorogi FC56%
×Draw22%
Csornai SE21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorogi FC
1.90
Csornai SE
1.08

Dorogi FC creates 76% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dorogi FC
1.47
Csornai SE
0.93

allows per match

Dorogi FC
1.24
Csornai SE
2.33

finishing

Dorogi FC+0.00on par
Csornai SE+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorogi FC ↓

Csornai SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dorogi FC or draw
79%
Dorogi FC or Csornai SE
78%
Draw or Csornai SE
44%

Winning margin

Dorogi FC wins by 2+
33%
Csornai SE wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dorogi FC 1+ goals
85%
Dorogi FC 2+ goals
56%
Dorogi FC 3+ goals
29%
Csornai SE 1+ goals
66%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
29%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dorogi FC (draw refunded)
73%
Csornai SE (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorogi FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

Csornai SE away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorogi FC attack 1.47 + Csornai SE defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.90

Csornai SE attack 0.93 + Dorogi FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dorogi FC scores more
56%
level
22%
Csornai SE scores more
21%

Dorogi FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dorogi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dorogi FC vs Csornai SE

Dorogi FC beat Csornai SE 3-2 in NB III - Northwest on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Buzánszky Jenő Stadion in Dorog.